Zwischen Ausbildung und Arbeitsmarkt : regionale Unterschiede beim Übergang von der beruflichen Erstausbildung in Beschäftigung

Transitions from vocational training into the labour market have become increasingly difficult in Germany during the past decades; accordingly, the German dual system of vocational training has come under attack. Based on the IAB-employment sample (regional file 1975-2004) and using multilevel event history models, the present work investigates the extent to which the regional employment situation governs the transition from vocational training into the labour market. Concerning the years 1996 to 2004 it can be demonstrated that the time-dependent regional labour market situation exerts a considerable influence on the risk of becoming and remaining unemployed subsequent to vocational training in the dual system. Furthermore, regional employment opportunities interact with young people’s educational level: the exclusion of less qualified juveniles from the labour market is more likely the higher the regional unemployment rate is.