Citation Link: https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hbz:467-7992
Essays on central bank forecasting
Source Type
Doctoral Thesis
Author
Subjects
inflation
density forecast
risk forecast
forecast uncertainty
interest rate path
DDC
330 Wirtschaft
GHBS-Clases
Issue Date
2013
Abstract
In this doctoral thesis consisting of four thematically linked essays, the informational and political aspects of central bank forecasts, in particular of density forecasts for inflation and output growth, are analyzed using statistical methods. The evaluation of the information content of macroeconomic risk forecasts, the analysis of the determinants of the shape of
inflation fan charts, the impact of the interest rate assumption on the forecast accuracy of central bank forecasts and the relevance of uncertainty and risk forecasts for monetary policy decisions are the pillars of this work. Surveys of the international practice of central bank forecasting with respect to these issues complement the empirical parts of the studies.
inflation fan charts, the impact of the interest rate assumption on the forecast accuracy of central bank forecasts and the relevance of uncertainty and risk forecasts for monetary policy decisions are the pillars of this work. Surveys of the international practice of central bank forecasting with respect to these issues complement the empirical parts of the studies.
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